Much has changed on the American electoral map in the last decade, in particular with the election of Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020. Gone are the days when everyone who follows the presidential elections in the United States closely waited awake until late hours (early morning in Europe) waiting for the results in Florida or Ohio.

Four years ago, victory in the presidential election was decided in states where the difference in votes between the candidates was just over 10,000. This year, some of those battles will be re-edited and the polls do not have good news for Joe Biden, who starts late in five of the six potentially decisive states in these elections.

Will Joe Biden be able to repeat his victory in rust belt states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and defend the so-called blue wall, or will Donald Trump be able to re-enact the surprise achieved eight years ago. Here’s what it’s all about.

Arizona

  • 11 electoral college votes;
  • Joe Biden narrowly won in 2020 | Donald Trump won in 2016;
  • Polls give favoritism to Donald Trump (see here).

Arizona is a state that traditionally votes for the Republican Party. In the past 72 years, only twice have Arizona voters chosen Democratic presidents — Bill Clinton in 1996; and Joe Biden in 2020. Four years ago, Biden won by a margin of just 10,457 votes out of nearly 3.4 million votes.

Immigration has been the main issue on the campaign trail in Arizona, and a weapon used by Republicans against the Biden administration. Arizona shares a southern border with Mexico that stretches about 600 kilometers, and the number of illegal entries — particularly in Tucson — continues to rise, even as the national average has been declining. The inability of the parties to reach an agreement, and of the administration to implement effective measures could hurt Joe Biden, especially given that this state has a Democratic governor.

Abortion, which was being discussed with less intensity, returned to the center of the debate after the Arizona Supreme Court decided to reinstate an 1864 anti-abortion law – which bans abortion in almost all scenarios – as a result of the reconsideration of Roe V. Wade by the Supreme Court of the United States.

Georgia

  • 16 votes in the Electoral College.
  • Joe Biden won in 2020 | Donald Trump won in 2016;
  • Donald Trump leads in the polls by a considerable margin (see here).

A Democratic stronghold practically since the founding of the United States, the state that gave the world Martin Luther King Jr., Ray Charles, and Jackie Robinson helped elect Democratic presidents such as Ulysses S. Grant, Woodrow Wilson, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and John Francis Kennedy Jr.

The trend changed in 1964 when Lyndon Johnson lost to Barry Goldwater. Since then, Georgia has only chosen the Democrats in 1976 and 1980 (Jimmy Carter, Georgia native), in 1992 (Bill Clinton v. George H. W. Bush), and Joe Biden in 2020, but by the smallest of margins – just 11,779 votes, out of a total of almost 5 million votes.

Two big questions promise to enliven the presidential political debate in Georgia at this point. The first is the criminal indictment against Donald Trump. In August last year, Donald Trump was charged with 13 crimes, including conspiracy to change the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, racketeering and criminal association. Donald Trump’s recorded – and released – phone call pressuring Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (Republican) to find enough votes to change the outcome in his favor is one of the key pieces of the indictment. This will be one of the main battlegrounds over the (false) accusations that the election was rigged in 2020.

The second major theme is the economy. At a time when the U.S. economy is growing, unemployment is at historically low levels, and inflation seems to be under control, Joe Biden has an influx of industrial investments in his favor in Georgia, including the new battery factory of Hyundai and LG – an investment of $4.3 billion – and the solar panel and components factory of Hanwha Qcells, an increase of 2.5 billion in the investment of this (also) South Korean company. Both investments are due to the investment support of the Inflation Reduction Act, Joe Biden’s investment plan.

Still, the polls give Donald Trump an advantage.

Michigan

  • 15 votes in the Electoral College;
  • Joe Biden won in 2020 | Donald Trump won in 2016;
  • Polls give Trump the lead (see here);

Not since Bill Clinton has Michigan seemed to have completely shifted to the left. Until 2016, when Donald Trump won, by a small margin (less than 11,000 votes), the 15 electoral college votes that this state represents. Joe Biden won in 2020 and everything seemed to indicate that he would be the favorite, until the US administration’s support for Israel during the war in Gaza changed everything.

In the Democratic primaries, the more than 100,000 voters of Arab descent, and from college towns like Ann Arbor, made a point of demonstrating how much they repudiate the president’s decisions by voting as non-committal. Even with a Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer, the protest vote may be too strong against Biden.

The debate will also focus on the economy. Joe Biden should continue to promote his strategy of renewed industrialization, in particular the promotion of green investments, and Donald Trump against these environmental policies and the promotion of electric cars. In the end, Michigan could be decisive in choosing the next president. As Donald Trump said, “If we win Michigan, we win the election.”

Nevada

  • 6 votes in the Electoral College;
  • Joe Biden won in 2020 | Hillary Clinton won in 2016;
  • Polls give Donald Trump the lead (see here).

Nevada has been a swing state since its inception, having voted intermittently for Democrats and Republicans (and even the defunct agrarian, anti-monopoly Greenpack Party) since it was incorporated as a state in 1864. Since 1976, the state has distributed its support very evenly: six Republican and six Democratic candidates.

The top concerns of Nevada voters, according to a poll conducted by Emerson College Polling, are the economy and immigration. As far as the economy is concerned, the state, in particular Las Vegas, has been greatly affected by the pandemic and its recovery is weaker than the rest of the country. Nevada has the highest unemployment rate in the U.S. At the same time, housing and energy prices have been rising sharply, with a significant impact on household disposable income.

On immigration, the debate has been more intense. Joe Biden has been trying to blame Republicans for not allowing the passage of a bipartisan reform of the immigration system. Donald Trump went to Las Vegas to say that this reform was aimed at “continuing the invasion of America while sending billions of dollars to Ukraine” and that migrants “poison the blood of our country.”

Polls point to a significant advantage for Donald Trump in the voting intentions of the population of Nevada, with three groups fundamental in this decision: 1) the trade unions, some of the most powerful in the country, particularly in the areas of hospitality and casino workers; 2) the Hispanic population (44% support Trump, and only 41% Biden); 3) and Caucasian voters (51% support Trump and 39% support Joe Biden).

Despite having voted in favor of the Democrats in the recent past – Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020 – Nevada elected a Republican governor in 2022, Joe Lombardo, who declared his support for Donald Trump in the presidential race in January of this year.

Pennsylvania

  • 19 votes in the Electoral College;
  • Joe Biden won in 2020 | Donald Trump won in 2016;
  • Joe Biden ahead in the polls by the slimmest of margins (see here).

It is a doubly special state for Joe Biden, because it was there that the current President of the United States was born (in the small town of Scranton, in 1942), and because in 2020 it allowed him to surpass the 270 votes in the electoral college that guaranteed him the election. It is also a beloved state of the Democrats, who have always won this state since 1992, until Donald Trump shocked Hillary Clinton’s campaign in 2016.

Part of the group of industrial states that Americans call the Rust Belt, the economy is the main issue that voters are concerned about. With a state divided between workers in local industries, in particular fossil fuels such as oil, and more progressive voters in the big cities, concerned about environmental issues.

With the suspension of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, Joe Biden has been trying to reach the most progressive voters, but he has exposed himself to the attacks of Donald Trump, who has promoted the exploration and export of shale oil and gas – more dangerous to extract, and with a greater impact on the environment, but more accessible to exploitation by small producers.

With nearly 75 percent of the population Caucasian, this will be the group whose support the candidates will vie for most intensely in an attempt to convince voters that their state — which has lost a vote in the electoral college, a seat in Congress, and which has been losing population every year — is better off with either state.

Wisconsin

  • 10 votes in the Electoral College;
  • Joe Biden won in 2020 | Donald Trump won in 2016;
  • Donald Trump ahead in the polls (see here).

In the past 40 years, Wisconsin has only voted Republican in a presidential election twice: under Ronald Reagan in 1984; and Donald Trump in 2016.

In 2020, it was an integral part of Joe Biden’s victory and, proof of this, the current President has made Wisconsin one of his priorities. It was his first domestic visit after the elections, as early as February 2021. He returned several times in 2023 and in January took advantage of the inauguration of a bridge with Minnesota to promote his infrastructure plan.

In a state where more than 80% of the electorate are Caucasian and strongly agrarian, the economy is at the top of the list. Joe Biden’s strategy has been to portray the scenario he found as an economy on the brink of disaster, and his infrastructure and industry support plan as the salvation, dubbing America the industrial capital of the world.

Donald Trump, on the other hand, took credit for the gains in the capital markets, and characterized everything else as “terrible”, accusing Biden of being responsible for inflation.

Still, Democrats believe that the election could come by getting the vote of women, and young people in college towns, and are therefore betting heavily on issues such as abortion.

However, the difference can be made by those who can motivate their voters to go to the polls to vote. A survey conducted by Marquette University Law School shows that only 49% of those polled are motivated to vote, down from 70% four years ago.