European countries’ perception of the threat posed by Russia is diluting as the distance to Moscow increases, warns Ian Lesser, distinguished fellow of the German Marshall Fund, who leaves yet another warning: European societies are not aware and prepared for the use of force.
As for the future of American foreign policy if Donald Trump wins the presidential election again in November, time and experience could bring a very different administration.

Advisor to the President of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, and responsible for the Brussels delegation of the GMF and the GMF South program, a comprehensive program dedicated to the research and analysis of developments in southern Europe, Turkey and the Mediterranean, Ian Lesser was at FLAD for the first session of the new cycle of conferences dedicated to the US presidential elections on November 5th, which were presented by the President of FLAD, Nuno Morais Sarmento.

“This is the first session of the new series of conferences dedicated to the upcoming U.S. presidential elections, which will take place in November, which FLAD has decided to organize. The idea is to receive American personalities from various areas next month, to hear their perspective on the internal situation of the United States and their expectations about the future of American foreign policy.” – Nuno Morais Sarmento, President of FLAD

In the conversation moderated by RTP’s international editor, Márcia Rodrigues, Ian Lesser gave his perspective as specialists in internal relations, but also as an American who has lived in Europe for decades.
First, he praised Joe Biden’s administration, as being the most European-centric in recent decades – neither Donald Trump nor Barack Obama before him – have given such a central role to the transatlantic relationship.
But this can, and should change, after the next elections.
On the other hand, Europe’s ability to act against Russia, which it sees more as an intermediary than as an actor.

“It’s one thing to build and invest in the defense industries, it’s quite another to use force, regain conscription, and all the other things that Europe thought it had gotten rid of for good. Living in Europe, I’m not sure that European societies are completely prepared for this.” – Ian Lesser.

About a Donald Trump administration, the head of the German Marshall Fund says that he does not believe that if elected, Donald Trump will take the United States out of NATO as Charles de Gaulle did with France in 1966, but that he could certainly make the ability to operate the alliance very difficult for all its members.
As for the future of American foreign policy in a possible Trump administration, Ian Lesser warned of the importance of appointments to political positions in defense, foreign policy and intelligence services.
Eight years ago, Donald Trump “wasn’t expecting to be elected”, which led to the nominations being a mix of moderates and others less so. This time, with greater preparation and ideas of what can happen, it is expected that people who defend more radical policies will be appointed to these positions. ” Is it more predictable or less?
I can’t say.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V87HCccXDkA&ab_channel=Funda%C3%A7%C3%A3oLuso-AmericanparaoDesenvolvimento This was the first session of a cycle of conferences dedicated to the U.S. presidential elections that FLAD will develop in the coming months with U.S. experts, on topics relevant to the domestic and foreign policy of that country and to the Euro-Atlantic community, with the aim of promoting the debate on current American politics and the implications of this election inside and outside the US.
With these sessions, we want to contribute to a greater knowledge of the American political and electoral system, at a time when in European countries, and certainly in Portugal, so much attention is devoted to the American political reality.
This cycle is an opportunity for researchers, students, policy makers, diplomats, media, analysts and the general public to have closer contact with leading international authors and experts in the field.
The sessions will be moderated by RTP journalist Márcia Rodrigues, current international editor of the channel and former RTP correspondent in Washington D.C., where she covered, among others, the administration of Donald Trump.